2026 | A Year of Delivery and Growth

As we enter 2026, the focus at BlackLeaf is on practical results. We have spent the last year refining our systems, and this year is about putting those tools to work for our clients. The global economy is moving into a new phase, and our strategy is built to help you take advantage of the specific opportunities appearing in the South African and international markets.

The South African Market

Stability and Opportunities

To understand our focus for 2026, we first look at the local economic landscape. South Africa is currently showing its most consistent signs of a structural turnaround in over a decade. While challenges remain, the data suggests that the country is moving from a state of "crisis management" to one of "measured recovery," making it an increasingly attractive destination for both domestic and international capital.

Inflation Targets

In November 2025, the Minister of Finance and the South African Reserve Bank (SARB) announced a formal move to a single-point inflation target of 3% (with a tolerance band of ±1%). This marks the first change to the inflation framework in 25 years.

• Current Standing: As of early January 2026, headline inflation has cooled significantly, settling at 3.5% for the most recent reading.

  
  

• The Goal: By anchoring expectations at 3%, rather than the old 3%–6% range, the SARB aims to lower the "inflation risk premium." For your business, this means more predictable long-term costs and a more competitive environment for South African exports.

Interest Rate Trends

The 2026 outlook for interest rates is one of continued relief. Following a 25 basis point cut in November 2025, the repo rate currently stands at 6.75%, bringing the prime lending rate to 10.25%.

• Economists anticipate a further 50 to 75 basis points of cuts during 2026, with the next potential move expected in March.

• This downward cycle is the most sustained easing we have seen in years, significantly reducing the "hurdle rate" for new business projects and property investments.

Energy and Infrastructure

Turning the Corner The story of South African energy in 2026 is one of stability through diversification. The national grid has reached its most reliable state in years, with over 230 consecutive days of uninterrupted power supply recorded as of early January.

• Private Power Surge: The "massive rollout" we anticipated is now a reality. There is currently a pipeline of over 220GW of private-sector energy projects in development, with approximately 72GW in advanced stages.

  
  

• Eskom’s Recovery: Improvements in plant maintenance have seen the Energy Availability Factor (EAF) rise to nearly 70%, while unplanned outages have dropped significantly compared to the same period in 2025.

  
  

• Logistics & Rail: Beyond energy, the government is committing over R940 billion to infrastructure over the next three years. This includes an R8.3 billion injection into Transnet to rehabilitate crucial rail corridors, aimed at unlocking billions more in private investment and restoring the efficiency of our ports.

The Rand's Comeback

The Rand has kicked off 2026 trading at R16.49 to the US Dollar, reaching its strongest level in over three years. This isn't just a "lucky streak"; it is backed by several factual drivers:

• Credit Upgrades: In late 2025, S&P Global raised South Africa’s credit rating to 'BB' (Foreign Currency) and 'BB+' (Local Currency), citing improved fiscal management and the successful reform of Eskom.

• Institutional Confidence: South Africa's recent removal from the FATF "Grey List" has restored its standing as a transparent financial hub, triggering significant inflows from offshore investors.

• Commodity Boom: A "bull market" in precious metals, with Gold and Platinum Group Metals (PGMs) hitting record highs, has provided a massive boost to our trade balance.

• Dollar Weakness: Broader global shifts, including interest rate cuts from the US Federal Reserve, have weakened the Dollar, allowing the Rand to regain its "fair value."

Reflecting on 2025 and Defining 2026

2025 was our year of "Strategic Recalibration." It was a period where the global and local financial landscapes underwent significant shifts; from the formal introduction of South Africa’s new inflation targeting framework to the heightened transparency required by global tax authorities. At BlackLeaf, we spent 2025 strengthening our internal governance, refining our proprietary review processes, and ensuring that our infrastructure was ready for a more connected, cross-border future. We successfully helped our clients navigate the "Grey List" transition and prepared their portfolios for the interest rate easing cycle that has now become a defining feature of the current market.

As we move into 2026, our theme is "Disciplined Delivery." The groundwork has been laid. This year is not about reinventing our identity, but about executing on the promises of efficiency, access, and sophisticated structuring. We are focusing on four core areas where we believe we can provide the most distinctive value in this recovering economy.

BlackLeaf Wealth

Solving Cross-Border Challenges

Managing wealth today is rarely a local affair. Many of our clients are part of global families. You might have a business in Johannesburg, a property in London, and family members in Dubai or Europe. This lifestyle creates a complicated web of different laws, banking rules, and reporting requirements that can become a significant administrative burden.

In 2025, we focused heavily on compliance and preparing for the end of South Africa’s "grey-listing" era. In 2026, BlackLeaf Wealth is shifting toward active coordination and proactive structuring.

Strategic Portfolio Models for a Borderless World

We are moving beyond simple asset allocation to focus on how your wealth is structured. This year, we are introducing strategic portfolio models designed to work across multiple jurisdictions.

• Regulatory Alignment: We ensure your investments are optimised for the latest tax and disclosure laws in every country where you hold assets.

• Unified Oversight: We provide a single point of clarity for your global interests. This helps you manage the friction that often occurs when moving capital between different international banking systems.

Fiduciary Coordination: Protecting Your Legacy

A major priority for 2026 is ensuring that your legacy is not caught in legal paralysis across borders.

• Trust and Estate Structuring: We are intensifying our coordination of trusts and estates. We ensure that local and offshore wills are perfectly aligned. This is vital to avoid delays and excessive taxes when assets need to be passed on to the next generation.

• Family Office Support: We are expanding our support for family offices. We provide the professional oversight needed to handle complex multi-jurisdictional tax considerations and international banking access.

By providing a structured, well-governed approach, BlackLeaf Wealth ensures that private and family capital remains resilient, no matter how complex the global environment becomes.

BlackLeaf Advisory Group

Practical Transaction Support

While 2025 was a year of "waiting for clarity" in the corporate world, 2026 is emerging as the year of the deal. With the South African "Government of National Unity" providing a more stable policy backdrop and the energy crisis finally subsiding, corporate confidence is returning.

The Return of Strategic M&A

In 2025, many boards focused on internal efficiencies and cost management. This year, the focus has shifted to external growth and de-conglomeration. Many larger South African firms are looking to divest non-core assets to sharpen their focus, while mid-market companies are searching for "bolt-on" acquisitions to scale quickly.

BlackLeaf Advisory Group enters 2026 with a hands-on, mandate-driven approach.

• Corporate Advisory: We guide boards through M&A, governance, and complex compliance structures. Our goal is to ensure that every transaction is not just legally sound, but strategically beneficial for long-term growth.

• Capital Optimisation: We work with shareholders to refine their financing structures. This includes navigating the current interest rate cycle to support refinancing or growth-focused capital events.

Execution-Focused Mandates

We understand that mid-market businesses don't need generic consulting. They need execution. Our 2026 mandates are practical and execution-focused, helping businesses navigate the "Just Transition" and the new digital tax compliance landscape introduced by SARS earlier this year. Whether you are preparing for a disposal or an acquisition, we provide the transactional support needed to cross the finish line with confidence.

BlackLeaf Proprietary

Access to Exclusive Opportunities

In 2025, the investment world was largely defined by a flight to safety. Investors focused on protecting capital against inflation and navigating the final stages of a high-interest-rate cycle. At BlackLeaf, we spent that year building a funnel of high-conviction opportunities, moving away from broad market products to focus on private, unlisted assets that offer a resilient growth profile. As we move into 2026, our strategy for BlackLeaf Proprietary is one of selective participation. We believe the best returns in a recovering economy are found where capital is scarce but operational expertise is high. Our focus is on providing our partners with direct equity roles alongside proven operating partners in critical pillars that lead toward a return potential of up to 30% per annum.

Equity Investments

We are facilitating equity roles for our clients alongside proven operating partners in sectors that are currently undervalued or poised for structural growth.

• Healthcare and the "Missing Middle": South Africa faces a significant gap in quality medical care for the "missing middle," representing the 23% to 30% of the population who are entry-level professionals, teachers, and nurses. With a market opportunity estimated at over R200 billion, we are facilitating investments into private medical facilities and day-hospitals that serve this stable, underserved demographic. These facilities provide high-quality care close to where people live, improving productivity and community health while offering investors first-mover advantages in a sector with high demand and defensive cash flows.

• Infrastructure and Logistics: The government has committed over R940 billion to infrastructure over the next three years, but the real momentum is in Private Sector Participation (PSP). We are targeting unlisted opportunities in logistics and "hard" infrastructure, such as revitalising rail corridors and modernisation projects for ports. As of early 2026, new gantry cranes have become fully operational at major terminals like Cape Town, which has already seen refrigerated container volumes increase by over 30%. We are positioning our clients to benefit from this improved export efficiency in the fruit and mineral sectors.

• Agriculture and Export Resilience: South African agriculture enters 2026 with unprecedented momentum. Despite a volatile 2025, the sector has successfully pivoted toward efficiency and technology. We are backing operating partners who use smart-farming technology and renewable energy to combat utility unreliability. With agricultural exports exceeding R190 billion annually, we focus on export-oriented horticulture and field crops that tap into growing markets in Asia and the Middle East. Favourable La Niña rainfall prospects for the 2025/26 season further support our high-yield expectations.

• Informal Energy and Junior Mining: As traditional mining finance becomes more constrained, 2026 is seeing a surge in alternative capital for junior miners and informal energy projects. We are facilitating access to "new generation" mining projects focused on copper, lithium, and manganese, which are essential for the global green energy transition. We also help our clients navigate the R400 million Junior Mining Exploration Fund and other grant-to-equity structures that support emerging black-owned mining entities.

Shariah Compliant Investments

A core component of our proprietary strategy is the expansion of ethical and Sharia-compliant investment structures through our partners at Rihlat Muzdahira. These offerings ensure that growth is both profitable and principled, focusing on real-world economic activity.

• Asset and Vehicle Finance: This Shariah-compliant fund focuses on high-yielding monthly income by investing in asset and vehicle finance on a rent-to-own basis. It targets essential assets used in productive economic activity, such as passenger vehicles, commercial vehicles, and renewable energy solutions. The fund offers an expected profit share of 13% to 20% per annum.

  
  

• Property Finance: This portfolio provides exposure to income-generating and development-linked real estate assets, such as residential or commercial properties. It seeks to deliver stable income and long-term capital appreciation through investment in tangible real estate assets. The expected returns include an 11% to 13% profit share per annum with an estimated 6% annual capital appreciation.

  
  

• Trade and Commodity Finance: This fund partners with local SMMEs to provide funding for transactions backed by commodities or purchase orders from reputable companies. Capital is deployed into structured trade finance solutions supporting import, export, and domestic trade activity. It targets a profit share range of 20% to 30%.

Our Commitment

We are relentless in our pursuit of excellence, constantly scouring the horizon to identify and secure the next generation of high-alpha opportunities, ensuring that the world’s most lucrative, exclusive investments are delivered directly to your doorstep.

BlackLeaf Business Marketplace

Connecting Capital and Assets

As we look ahead, the final pillar of our 2026 strategy focuses on the infrastructure of opportunity. During 2025, we recognised that while quality assets and qualified capital exist in abundance, the "friction" of discovery and vetting often slows down the pace of growth. The BlackLeaf Business Marketplace was developed to solve this specific challenge.

A Digital Ecosystem for High-Value Engagement

The Marketplace is not just a listing site; it is a dedicated, pre-vetted digital environment designed to streamline how projects and companies engage with professional investors. In 2026, we are doubling down on the development of this platform to ensure it remains the premier destination for discreet and credible transactions.

• The Vetting Process: Every project or company presented on the platform undergoes a rigorous internal review. This ensures that when an investor logs in, they are viewing credible, "bankable" opportunities that align with institutional standards.

• Secure Interaction: We have created a secure, private environment where sensitive data can be shared and discussed with total discretion. This is particularly vital for the off-market and proprietary deals we handle.

• Efficiency in Capital Events: By providing a structured platform for assets to be presented to qualified buyers, we significantly reduce the time spent on initial "discovery" and "matchmaking," allowing all parties to move straight to the due diligence and execution phases.

Streamlining Global Connectivity

In 2026, the Marketplace acts as the central hub for the connectivity we strive for across the group. Whether it is an infrastructure project in the Eastern Cape or a healthcare facility in Gauteng, the platform allows for efficient capital engagement across borders.

• Investor Interaction: Qualified investors receive tailored access to projects that match their specific mandates and risk profiles.

• Asset Presentation: We enable credible asset owners to reach a wider, yet targeted, audience of domestic and international buyers, ensuring that high-potential businesses receive the visibility they deserve.

The objective of the Marketplace remains clear: to improve the speed and quality of capital engagement while maintaining the highest levels of professional credibility.

Looking Ahead

Our Commitment to Execution

Across these four focus areas—Wealth, Advisory, Proprietary, and our Marketplace—BlackLeaf’s 2026 agenda is defined by disciplined execution and measured expansion. We are not just observing the "green shoots" in the South African economy; we are actively cultivating them.

As we progress through the year, we will continue to share further updates as our offerings, platforms, and advisory mandates evolve. Our focus remains on delivery—ensuring that our clients and partners are positioned to thrive in an era of renewed stability and growth.

We look forward to navigating the opportunities of 2026 alongside you.